Appendix
Additional data and results tables for Punishing Places: The Geography of Mass Imprisonment.
Descriptive Statistics of Massachusetts Census Tracts
Measures
Tract violent crime rate (per 1,000)
Tract drug arrest rate (per 1,000)
Concentrated disadvantage (score)
Family poverty (%)
Adults less than HS degree (%)
Female-headed households (%)
Civilians unemployed (%)
Public assistance income (%)
Foreign born (%)
Hispanic/Latino (%)
Non-Hispanic Black (%)
Non-Hispanic other race (%)
New residents (%)
Tract violent crime rate (per 1,000)
Tract drug arrest rate (per 1,000)
Concentrated disadvantage (score)
Family poverty (%)
Adults less than HS degree (%)
Female-headed households (%)
Civilians unemployed (%)
Public assistance income (%)
Foreign born (%)
Hispanic/Latino (%)
Non-Hispanic Black (%)
Non-Hispanic other race (%)
New residents (%)
Mean
4.7
3.3
.0
8.7
13.1
25.5
7.2
16.0
14.7
9.5
6.4
4.8
24.7
4.7
3.3
.0
8.7
13.1
25.5
7.2
16.0
14.7
9.5
6.4
4.8
24.7
Median
2.2
1.7
-.4
4.4
9.2
20.5
5.9
8.8
11.4
3.6
1.9
2.4
22.3
2.2
1.7
-.4
4.4
9.2
20.5
5.9
8.8
11.4
3.6
1.9
2.4
22.3
S.D.
6.6
5.9
1.0
11.1
11.4
18.4
5.1
18.3
11.5
15.2
12.6
6.7
11.6
6.6
5.9
1.0
11.1
11.4
18.4
5.1
18.3
11.5
15.2
12.6
6.7
11.6
Note: Units are census tracts. N=1,464. Source: Author’s compilation of census and crime records.
Concentrated Disadvantage Measures
Measures
Family poverty
Adults less than HS degree
Female-headed family households
Civilians unemployed
Households with public assistance income
Family poverty
Adults less than HS degree
Female-headed family households
Civilians unemployed
Households with public assistance income
Factor score
.85
.77
.84
.63
.90
.85
.77
.84
.63
.90
Note: Factor regression score from orthogonal rotated factor pattern of census tract concentrated disadvantage measures. Reported loadings >.60. Source: Author’s compilation of 2005-2009 American Community Survey estimates.
Distribution of Spatial Indicators in Massachusetts
Geographic Area
Boston
Greater Boston suburbs
Small cities
Surburbs and rural towns
Boston
Greater Boston suburbs
Small cities
Surburbs and rural towns
% of Census Tracts
11.5
17.3
20.8
50.4
11.5
17.3
20.8
50.4
Note: Percentages indicate the portion of census tracts falling inside the given regional area. Units are census tracts N=1,464. Source: Author’s tabulation of spatial areas.
The Urban Model: Regression Analysis
Spatial lag of prison admissions
Log drug arrest rate
Log violent crime rate
Concentrated disadvantage score
Proportion non-Hispanic Black
Proportion Latino
Proportion other race
Proportion foreign born
Proportion new residents
Greater Boston suburbs
Small cities
Suburbs and rural towns
Constant
N census tracts
Pseudo R-squared
(1)
.291***
(.04)
-.007
(.03)
.286***
(.03)
.481***
(.04)
.851***
(.16)
-.223
(.22)
-1.243***
(.32)
.067
(.25)
.923***
(.17)
-7.512***
(.09)
1,314
.599
.291***
(.04)
-.007
(.03)
.286***
(.03)
.481***
(.04)
.851***
(.16)
-.223
(.22)
-1.243***
(.32)
.067
(.25)
.923***
(.17)
-7.512***
(.09)
1,314
.599
(2)
.249***
(.04)
.029
(.03)
.231***
(.03)
.436***
(.04)
.765***
(.18)
-.234
(.21)
-1.205***
(.31)
-.170
(.25)
.780***
(.18)
-.134*
(.07)
.203***
(.07)
-.272***
(.08)
-7.190***
(.13)
1,314
.655
.249***
(.04)
.029
(.03)
.231***
(.03)
.436***
(.04)
.765***
(.18)
-.234
(.21)
-1.205***
(.31)
-.170
(.25)
.780***
(.18)
-.134*
(.07)
.203***
(.07)
-.272***
(.08)
-7.190***
(.13)
1,314
.655
Note: Results from negative binomial regression analysis of census-tract level prison admissions (2009-2017). ***p<.01. Source: Author’s compilation of census, crime, and prison admission recors.
Small Cities and Mass Incarceration: Regression Analysis
Proportion non-Hispanic Black
Proportion Latino
Concentrated disadvantage
Proportion vacant housing
Log violent crime rate
Uniformed officers rate
Small cities
Suburbs and rural towns
Constant
City-year observations
Pseudo R-squared
1997-2006
1.826***
(.57)
1.018***
(.32)
.188***
(.03)
-.581*
(.31)
.084***
(.03)
.581***
(.04)
.577***
(.08)
.102
(.06)
-1.287***
(.18)
951
.379
1.826***
(.57)
1.018***
(.32)
.188***
(.03)
-.581*
(.31)
.084***
(.03)
.581***
(.04)
.577***
(.08)
.102
(.06)
-1.287***
(.18)
951
.379
2007-2017
1.308***
(.34)
.270
(.23)
.142***
(.03)
1.010***
(.27)
.232***
(.02)
.560***
(.03)
.627***
(.07)
.025
(.06)
-2.019***
(.17)
1,074
.504
1.308***
(.34)
.270
(.23)
.142***
(.03)
1.010***
(.27)
.232***
(.02)
.560***
(.03)
.627***
(.07)
.025
(.06)
-2.019***
(.17)
1,074
.504
Note: Results from linear regression analysis of log prison admission rates in Massachusetts cities by time period, 1997-2017. Units are cities/towns. ***p<.01. Source: Author’s compilation of census, police employment, crime, and prison records.
Community Loss: Regression Analysis
Proportion non-Hispanic Black
Proportion Latino
Proportion other race
Concentrated disadvantage
Proportion vacant housing
Greater Boston suburbs
Small Cities
Suburbs and rural towns
Constant
City observations
City-year observations
Pseudo R-squared
Minimum Community Loss
2.442***
(2.96)
.279
(.51)
-1.266
(.92)
.553***
(8.54)
1.456**
(2.58)
-.0940
(.62)
.674***
(5.49)
-.0347
(.20)
1.426***
(7.39)
325
1,874
.339
2.442***
(2.96)
.279
(.51)
-1.266
(.92)
.553***
(8.54)
1.456**
(2.58)
-.0940
(.62)
.674***
(5.49)
-.0347
(.20)
1.426***
(7.39)
325
1,874
.339
Maximum Community Loss
2.209***
(2.60)
.0781
(.14)
-2.068
(1.47)
.590***
(8.77)
1.263**
(2.18)
-.0487
(.31)
.720***
(5.55)
.0882
(.50)
1.668***
(8.43)
325
1,874
.368
2.209***
(2.60)
.0781
(.14)
-2.068
(1.47)
.590***
(8.77)
1.263**
(2.18)
-.0487
(.31)
.720***
(5.55)
.0882
(.50)
1.668***
(8.43)
325
1,874
.368
Prison Admissions
1.086
(1.75)
.119
(.33)
-1.936**
(1.97)
.350***
(6.54)
.753
(1.75)
-.0513
(.45)
.512***
(5.33)
.192
(1.43)
.899***
(6.55)
325
1,874
.421
1.086
(1.75)
.119
(.33)
-1.936**
(1.97)
.350***
(6.54)
.753
(1.75)
-.0513
(.45)
.512***
(5.33)
.192
(1.43)
.899***
(6.55)
325
1,874
.421
Note: Results from linear regression analysis of community loss and prison admission in Massachusetts cities, 1997-2009. Units are cities/towns. Absolute t statistics in parentheses. **p<.05; ***p<.01. Models include fixed effects for year, and SEs are ajdusted for clustering by city. Source: Author’s compilation of cenus and prison records.